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Climate Change

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Climate Change in Grand Rapids

We are, and have been, experiencing the effects of climate change in Grand Rapids. To avoid the worst impacts, we are working to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) and prepare for known changes like increased extreme weather (adaptation).

Explore the sections below to learn more about the science behind global climate change and what we expect locally for the future of Grand Rapids, Michigan.

Climate Change Science

Climate change describes long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns. Earth's climate has changed many times across billions of years and will continue to change. Many of these changes are caused by natural processes and cycles that increase energy output from the Sun or volcanic activity on Earth.

However, since the 1800s, human activities have been the main force behind changings Earth's climate. Each year, more carbon dioxide (CO₂) is released into the air, primarily by burning fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas, than all of Earth's oceans, forests, and soil can remove. This is causing more CO₂ to build up and is changing the Earth's temperature.

Click the tabs below to learn more about weather and climate, global temperature trends, the greenhouse effect, greenhouse gases, human-caused emissions and their sources, and mitigation & adaptation.

Though they are closely related, weather and climate are not the same thing. Climate is what you expect for a region (based on past trends) and weather is what actually happens (based on current atmospheric conditions).

Weather

Short-term changes in the atmosphere – which can be that it’s currently raining out, or that we haven’t gotten much snow yet this winter.

We use weather to describe short amounts of time like a week, a season, or a year.

Climate

A long-term average of weather over decades or centuries-- at least 20 to 30 years.

So, while one year may have been really cold, when you look at the average change over 20-30 years, our winters are getting warmer with more rain.

If the world's getting warmer how can it be so cold out? An analogy. Weather is like the money in your pocket on any one day. Climate is like your net worth over time.

One way to think about this is weather can be like the money in your pocket on any one day, but climate is your overall wealth over your lifetime. Some years may have had a tighter budget than others, but your net worth shows all the ups and downs and identifies trends over time. 

Since record-keeping of global temperature began in the year 1880, the hottest year on record remains 2024. Some years are hotter and some are colder, but the trend across the whole timeline is that, overall, the Earth is getting warmer.

In the graph below, each small white dot represents that year's change in global surface temperature compared to the average temperature between 1951 to 1980 (30 years). These dots represent the average temperature that year (weather).

The solid black line is the trend of weather patterns (climate) and shows an increase in the global surface temperature in the past ~150 years.

The global Temperature Anomaly (C) from 1880 to 2020 has increased and trends upwards.

For up to date tracking on global temperatures, visit the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Global Climate Change Global Temperature page.

The greenhouse effect describes how our atmosphere can trap heat, therefore warming the surface of the Earth, similar to a clear, outdoor, greenhouse for plants. The types of gas in our air that trap the most heat are called greenhouse gasses, or GHGs.

Without any GHGs, Earth would become too cold to support life. However, the more GHGs released into the atmosphere, the warmer the planet becomes.

A yellow arrow representing light connects the Sun and the Earth in space. A red arrow shows the heat that greenhouse gasses redirect at Earth causing it's surface to increase in temperature.

The Sun’s energy (through solar radiation) shines down and heats the Earth. Some of that heat energy bounces off or is reflected by clouds in the atmosphere, the rest warms up the Earth and gives off heat energy. The natural blanket traps about half of that energy keeping the earth a temperature we can live in.

Once the Earth’s surface is warm, it gives off excess energy to space as invisible infrared radiation. This release of energy by the Earth is what warms the surface of the planet.

This natural "blanket" of heat-trapping gases prevents the Earth from freezing solid and allows for life to exist. 

However, since the 1800s, human activities have been the main force behind changings Earth's climate. More and more CO2, a very strong GHG, has been released and is increasing the thickness of the "blanket." 

The types of gas in our air that trap the most heat are called greenhouse gasses, or GHGs. The main greenhouse (heat-trapping) gases caused by human activity are:

  • Carbon dioxide (CO2)
  • Methane (CH4)
  • Nitrous oxide (N2O)
  • Fluorinated gases (various)

Each gas's effect on climate change depends on three main factors:

  • Abundance: or how much of the gas is in our atmosphere
  • Lifespan: how long the gas survives in our atmosphere
  • Global warming potential: how much heat does the gas trap in our atmosphere

Carbon Dioxide

In 2023, Carbon dioxide (CO2) accounted for 72% of all global GHG emissions from human activities, making it the most abundant greenhouse gas. CO2 has contributed more warming than any other GHG and it stays in our atmosphere the longest (between 300 and 1,000 years).

The main human activity that produces CO2 is the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, natural gas, and oil.

Source: Environmental Protection Agency

Exhaust exits the tailpipe of an idling car.

Methane

In 2023, Methane (CH4) accounted for only 19% of all global GHG emissions from human activities, making it the second most abundant greenhouse gas. Human activities that produce CH4 include:

  • sending organic waste, such as food, to landfills
  • raising domestic livestock, such as cows, as they produce CH4 during digestion
  • treating wastewater

Methane spends less time (~12 years) in the atmosphere compared to carbon dioxide (between 300 and 1,000 years), but is more efficient at trapping the heat in sunlight.

Source: Environmental Protection Agency

Bulldozers, dump trucks, and compactors are working on an active landfill.

Nitrous Oxide

In 2019, Nitrous oxide (N2O) accounted for 5.6% of all global GHG emissions from human activities, making it the third most abundant greenhouse gas. 

The main sources are the application of synthetic and organic fertilizers, the management of manure, and burning agricultural residue (material left behind after harvest).

N2O emissions do occur naturally as nitrogen is cycled between the air, plants, animals, and microorganisms in the soil and water.

Source: Environmental Protection Agency

A pile of manure sits in an open field.

Fluorinated Gases

This group of gases accounts for 2.8% of all global GHG emissions from human activities. Unlike many other greenhouse gases, fluorinated gases have no significant natural sources and come almost entirely from human-related activities.

They are emitted through their use in cooling appliances (e.g. refrigerators, freezers, and air conditioners) and through a variety of industrial processes. This group of greenhouse gases include:

  • HFCs - hydrofluorocarbons
  • PFCs - perfluorocarbons
  • NF₃ - nitrogen trifluoride
  • SF₆ - sulfur hexafluoride

Source: Environmental Protection Agency

Several window air conditioning units on an apartment building.

In the past, the Earth's climate has changed from various natural causes:

  • changes in energy from the Sun
  • massive, sustained volcanic eruptions
  • predictable cycles in the Earth’s orbit that drive the ice ages and the warm periods in between

All of these are factors that have caused the Earth to become warmer or cooler in the past.

However, since the beginning of the Industrial Era (1850), human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels, have raised atmospheric concentrations of CO2 by nearly 49%.

The graph below is a record of CO2 in Earth's atmosphere and illustrates both natural factors and human additions of CO2.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration from 800,000 BC to current day. The highest historical CO2 level is 300 parts per million.

The large sawtooth pattern of CO2 levels is caused by changes in the shape of Earth's orbit around the Sun. These changes affect how much sunlight energy the Earth receives. The recent, steep increase of CO2 in the atmosphere is due to human activities, primarily from burning fossil fuels.

The increase in global CO2 levels from 1950 to 2022 is more than what has happened naturally over an 800,000-year period. Our current atmosphere has more CO2 than the highest historical CO2 level.

Looking at both the total greenhouse gas emissions, by economic sector, for the United States, and Michigan, there is a consistent trend that our emissions are coming from the fueling of our electricity, transportation, buildings, and industry.

Global greenhouse gas emissions by sector and end use in 2023 pie chart.

Today, GHG emissions can be traced back to five economic sectors:

  • Energy (76.7%)
  • Agriculture (12.3%)
  • Industrial Processes (6.2%)
  • Waste (3.8%)
  • Land use, land-use change and forestry (0.9%)

Source: World Resources Institute

In climate change work there are two types of solutions: climate mitigation and climate adaptation

Mitigation is reducing, or preventing, GHGs by decreasing how much energy is consumed (or energy efficiency), ensuring energy is produced from renewable sources (such as wind, solar, etc.), and finding ways to capture and store greenhouse gases (known as sequestration). 

Adaptation is taking actions that reduce or prevent the harm caused by climate change and can include planning for impacts that are predicted to occur, putting processes in place to respond when anticipated changes occur, and being creative with new solutions (like businesses or energy systems) to adapt to our new normal.  

Venn diagram comparing climate mitigation to climate adaptation with various actions represented.

Mitigation includes sustainable transportation, energy efficiency, and clean energy. Adaptation includes disaster management and business continuity, infrastructure upgrades, and flood protection.

Actions that support both mitigation and adaptation include new energy systems, water conservation, education, and conserving the natural environment.

While mitigation is essential to addressing climate change, adaptation is also a high priority when looking to not only maintain but enhance quality of life. For even if all human emissions of heat-trapping gases were to stop today, Earth’s temperature would continue to rise for a few decades as ocean currents bring excess heat stored in the deep ocean back to the surface.

But the vast majority of future impacts can be avoided by choosing our future.

   

Projected Changes & Impacts

GLISA, Climate Adaptation Partnerships (CAP), along with the City of Grand Rapids created a summary of historic as well as projected changes in climate specific to Grand Rapids, MI. This information is valuable in helping us understand what changes we have already experienced as well as what changes we anticipate. For a look at the full report, click here

Essentially, Grand Rapids will see more days over 90°F in the summer and warmer days in the winter. Grand Rapids will also experience more rain and extreme weather events in shorter bursts that could cause an increase in flooding and droughts. 

Increasing Temperature:

Average air temperature is projected to rise 3°F to 5°F by the mid-21st century, with summer having the greatest increases of 4°F to 7°F.  

Historically Grand Rapids had on average 7.9 days per year over 90°F; by mid-century this is projected to rise from 20-38 days per year over 90°F.

Increasing Precipitation

Total annual precipitation has increased by 16%.  

Average annual precipitation in Grand Rapids is projected to increase by up to 3 inches by mid-century and by up to 7 inches by the end of the century, though types of precipitation will vary (i.e., more winter precipitation in the form of rain).

Increase in Extreme Weather Events

The total volume of rainfall in extreme events (heaviest 1% of storms) has increased by 52%.

Grand Rapids is projected to experience an increase of up to 1.7 days of heavy precipitation (days with over 1” of rainfall) per year by mid-century and by up to 3 days per year by end of century. 

 

Click the tabs below to learn more about health impacts, economic disruption, threat multiplication, ecosystem impacts, and climate migration.

One of the most important impacts of climate change is the impact on our human health. The following are potential health impacts expected for those who reside in Michigan according to the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

  • Allergies - Climate projections predict an earlier and longer season for plants with pollen, which could increase allergies.
  • Heat Related Health Issues - Health effects such as heat cramps, heat exhaustion, heat dizziness, and heat stroke can happen during high temperatures when the body is not able to cool itself by sweating. Heat waves can also worsen chronic conditions including cardiovascular disease and diabetes-related conditions.
  • Impacts on Pregnancy - Environmental pollution, such as small particles in our air from smoke, has been linked to increased risk of negative birth outcomes, including premature birth. Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from vehicle exhaust, industrial processes, or wildfire smoke has been found to impact the metabolism of pregnant people and increase risk.
  • Waterborne Diseases - Increases in waterborne disease outbreaks have been reported following a heavy rainfall. Buildings that experience water intrusion can develop mold contamination, which can lead to indoor air quality problems.
  • Vector-Borne Diseases - With the incoming of warmer winters, earlier springs, and warmer summers, climate change creates ideal conditions for vector-borne diseases such as West Nile Virus and Lyme Disease to flourish from an increase in mosquitos and ticks.
  • Mental Health - Climate change and related disasters cause elevated levels of anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorders. The trauma and losses from a disaster, such as losing a home or job and being disconnected from neighborhood and community, can contribute to depression and anxiety. Extreme weather events have also been associated with increases in aggressive behavior and domestic violence. 

Another reason to plan for climate change is to prepare for the economic impact of ever increasing billion-dollar disaster events. While taking a look at this graph note that this is only for the state of Michigan, with the most common disaster events including severe storms, floods and drought.

As you can see from the 1980s to the early 2000s, numbers were fairly low, but there is a steady rise in the amount of billion dollar disaster events from 2011 to 2021, and for 2021 there is a combined disaster cost of 1 to 2 billion dollars. 

Lake effect snow blows across West Michigan in this satellite image of the Great Lakes.

Climate change is also known as a threat multiplier or an accelerant of instability, which means that it has the potential to exacerbate other social forces such as water, food, and energy insecurity, as well as racial and low-income disparities.

Those most impacted by climate change are those who contributed least to the issue due to increased exposure to climate hazards, higher sensitivity, and a lower adaptive capacity.  This includes women and low-income populations globally, Indigenous peoples, and Black and Brown neighborhoods in the U.S. that may reside in flood zones, without green space, and potentially near toxic industry sites due to the racist practice of redlining.

Due to redlining, not all Grand Rapids neighborhoods will experience the impacts of climate change equally. Communities that were redlined remain those with a larger percentage of people of color and low-income residents. They are also the same neighborhoods that have fewer trees and green spaces, making them more vulnerable to heat and flooding. 

In 2021, the EPA released a report that showed that in the U.S. the most severe harms from climate change fall disproportionately upon underserved communities who are least able to prepare for, and recover from, heat waves, poor air quality, flooding, and other impacts.  EPA’s analysis indicated that communities of color are particularly vulnerable to the greatest impacts of climate change.

For local knowledge on how environmental action intersects with race read LINC UP's Neighborhood Environmental Action Report: Health, Environment and Race in Grand Rapids

Some additional effects we’ll see in West Michigan are an increase in lake levels. Research indicates climate change will drive water levels higher with Lake Superior expected to rise on an average by 7.5 inches, while levels on the Lake Michigan-Huron system is projected to increase 17 inches by mid century.

More lake effect snow for the time being will also be an ecosystem impact. In a warmer atmosphere, water evaporates faster, so when a storm comes around there is more water vapor waiting to be swept into the storm, creating more intense storm events.

For the Great Lakes this is creating more lake-effect snow – since warm lake water is evaporating into the atmosphere, but temperatures are remaining below freezing. So West Michigan sees more snow, and that is going to continue. This could impact the quality of our roads, the number of power outages and our community’s ability to accommodate trucking industry.

Another effect of a warmer atmosphere and then warming lakes is an increase in harmful algal blooms. As the temperature rises in lakes potentially toxic algae numbers will increase creating nutrient pollution and killing fish species. An increase in algal blooms is not only harmful to human and ecosystem health, but also to fishing tourism and traditional Anishinaabe cultural practices, such as water walks.  

Climate migration is the movement of people due to climate or the effects of climate change. The Midwest has been called a potential climate haven – where people will potentially move to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

Grand Rapids is primed to be a “climate haven” or a safer place for people to move to with a diverse job market, population growth, good schools, cultural offerings, comparatively moderate climate, and access to water.

Unfortunately, climate migration will exacerbate already existing inequities within our community – our focus for now is to address those inequities, and to increase quality of life and resilience of our community in the hopes that we will better be able to prepare for what’s to come.  

   

Environmental & Climate Justice

Environmental and climate justice both uphold the fundamental rights to clean air, land, water, and food that is free from pollution and destructive practices. 

Click the tabs below to learn more about a Just Transition, food sovereignty, energy democracy, transportation equity, resilient affordable housing, or for more resources on climate & environmental justice.

Just Transition is a vision-led, unifying and place-based set of principles, processes, and practices that build economic and political power to shift from an extractive economy to a regenerative economy. This means approaching production and consumption cycles holistically and waste-free. The transition itself must be just and equitable; redressing past harms and creating new relationships of power for the future through reparations.

Click here to visit the Climate Justice Alliance for more about the Just Transition Framework

“Food sovereignty is the right of peoples to healthy and culturally appropriate food produced through ecologically sound and sustainable methods, and their right to define their own food and agriculture systems. It puts the aspirations and needs of those who produce, distribute and consume food at the heart of food systems and policies rather than the demands of markets and corporations.” – Declaration of Nyéléni, the first global forum on food sovereignty, Mali, 2007

Between 44% and 57% of all greenhouse gas emissions come from the global food system. Through deforestation, farming, transportation, processing and packaging, refrigeration and retail, and waste, the industrial model of agribusiness – guided by generation of profits, exploitation of labor, commodification of the earth, and manipulation of natural systems – is a major contributor to the climate crisis.  Food sovereignty solutions focus on investing in localized food, farming and distribution systems in urban and rural communities.

Energy democracy pairs the renewable energy transition with efforts to democratize the production and management of energy. Energy democracy represents a shift from the corporate, centralized fossil fuel economy to one that is governed by communities, is designed on the principle of no harm to the environment, supports local economies, and contributes to the health and well-being for all peoples. 

Transportation is the number one source of carbon emissions in the U.S. In order to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, a lot of focus is being placed on the solution of transitioning to electric vehicles but does not address equitable access to these vehicles. Transportation equity focuses on solutions that include both equitable access to new technologies for low-income and communities of color, while moving away from reliance on automotive vehicles and encouraging public transportation and forms of active mobility such as walking or biking.

Increasing access to resilient affordable housing is a key climate justice solution. Energy cost burden more often falls on low-income households due to substandard housing. Climate change will likely deepen this problem due to ongoing and projected increases in average and extreme temperatures, which will expose those that cannot afford to maintain comfortable temperatures inside their homes to extreme heat. This exposure may lead to severe health consequences, including heat exhaustion and death from heatstroke. 

City Staff Contact

Climate Change Trainings

Click the links below to watch our Climate Change Training Series:

  1. Climate Change 101
  2. Communicating Climate Change
  3. Climate Solutions
  4. Climate Justice coming soon!